Fantasy Football Tip

Here is something to think about. Imagine, just like I have in one of my leagues, you receive the fourth overall pick. With this pick, your options will almost certainly be: Shaun Alexander and Frank Gore. Two great running backs, who have emerged has stars. However, with LaDainian Tomlinson, Steven Jackson, and Larry Johnson most likely off the board, why am I hesitant to take either of the two aforementioned available players?

Shaun Alexander played all 16 games in 6 straight years heading into last season. After emerging two years ago as the best running back in the game, or so we thought, Alexander broke his foot, and played in just 10 games. In the years before that, Alexander never had any injury issues at all. All of a sudden, however, Alexander seems to have become a guy we really can't count on anymore. His 27 touchdown season in 2005 seems like a very long time ago. When given the fourth pick in your draft, consider other options that may seem...more reliable.

Frank Gore's first season as a starter was a big time accomplishment for him last year. He surprised everybody, on a team that surprised everybody, due in part to his success on the ground. Gore rushed for 1695 yards, on 312 carries, both career highs. Gore averaged 5.4 yards per carry, a very high mark. This year, Gore will get the ball even more. Expect his yardage to increase, but his yards per carry to decrease. Even if Gore has an identical season to that of this year, his eight rushing touchdowns are unimpressive to say the least. If I don't want Shaun Alexander due to his lack of reliability, why take Gore who is even less reliable? Personally, at pick number four, I want a guy who has been steady his entire career.

Let's move our eyes a little down the draft board, where we see the four next top dogs: Joseph Addai, Willie Parker, Brian Westbrook, and Rudi Johnson. We can immediately toss Addai out of this. Despite his success and that of his predecessor, Addai remains a question mark as to what he will accomplish on the football field. And then there were three.

Westbrook always seems to be a reliable fantasy player. A guy who no one wants to take in the first round, but prays he is there in the second. Last year was the first year he gained over 1000 yards rushing, due to his 80 carry increase to 240. He also caught 77 passes, a career high, for 699 yards. All total, Westbrook had 11 touchdowns. However, with Donovan McNabb back under center, the Eagles offense will go back to that gun slinging, throw the ball 75% of the time, offense. This cuts deeply into Westbrook's carries, therefore his yards and rushing touchdowns will suffer. The Eagles also added more weapons on offense, with a guy like Kevin Curtis, who will take away some of Westbrook's receptions. The bottom line is Westbrook will do well, but not a guy to take at number four.

Now, it is down to Rudi Johnson and Willie Parker. What everyone loves about Rudi Johnson is his consistency. In 2004, Rudi rushed for 1454 yards and 12 touchdowns. In 2005, Rudi rushed for 1458 yards and 12 touchdowns. Last year, he dropped up a little bit, but still managed to gain 1309 yards and 12 touchdowns, despite a 3.8 yards per carry. Notice a level of consistency there? A dozen touchdowns each of the last three seasons. If you want steady, find me a guy who has had the same amount of touchdowns each of the last three years and make the number respectable. Rudi always seems to get his carries, but is in an offense that would much rather love to throw the ball down the field. The Bengals offensive line will be depleted going into the beginning of the year, which could cause all sorts of trouble for Rudi. However, you know what you will get from Rudi. First round picks aren't used for gambles. Even if people criticize you for taking Rudi at number four, why not take a guy that you know exactly what you're going to get. If there is any guys numbers in this league you can predict, they are Rudi Johnson's.

That leaves us with Willie Parker. Parker is going into his third season as a full time starter. Two years ago, in 2005, Parker emerged as the speedster that he is. Last year, Parker really strived with the Steelers, gaining nearly 1500 yards. He also ran for 13 touchdowns, which is more than any of the other guys ran for all of last season. What separates Parker from the rest of the crew, is the offense he is in. The Steelers have always believed in a smash mouth type game. They love to control the clock and pound the ball down the defense's throat. This is what makes Parker the best choice at number four. That is, if you want someone you are 100% sure will put up numbers if he is healthy.

Any of the last two guys would be looked at as solid picks. They will rack up the yards, score touchdowns, and be as steady as any of the top three picks. It may be difficult gathering the courage to draft a guy who doesn't have the flash to him, but all in all, he will do his job. With Alexander and Gore you run risks, with Addai you just don't know, with Westbrook, you don't trust his workload, but with Rudi and "Fast" Willie, the word "don't know" will not apply. Be safe, be smart, and have fun! Fantasy Football is the best!

Brandon